Saturday, October 29, 2016

What About Those Polls?



The Visual Guide to Disputing Media Polling

By Seth Keshel


To believe recent mainstream media polling releases, one would have to suspend reality enough to believe that John Podesta's email leaks, the ongoing Project Veritas video series, a world on fire, and new revelations about Obamacare are driving the public to embrace Hillary Clinton as never before.  Things are apparently so good for the former first lady that ABC has her with a 12-point lead, a margin not seen in a presidential election since 1984.  CNN is less confident but still has her sporting a comfortable 5-point lead.  Fox News has wavered between "too close to call" and the current 3-point edge that is contingent on her achieving President Obama's D+7 support level from 2008, which borders on complete insanity.

The purpose of this article is to prove that the media is either lying to massively impact motivation or turnout for Trump or has absolutely no idea what the actual score is.  The media don't care if I know what they are doing with their nonstop analysis of new "chaos" within the Trump campaign.  They are playing this sad song for the record number of independent voters who appear to be requesting ballots or voting early in battlegrounds across America.

The first clue is that in the same week, ABC and CNN have polls showing a massive lead and a comfortable lead, respectively.  These two polls are seven points apart.  Obama's landslide win from 2008 was by a margin of 7.6%, and he still lost 22 states.  Still, the enthusiasm and novelty of his campaign, combined with the natural pendulum swing that takes place after eight years of either party in the White House, left little doubt that he would win easily.  Currently, ABC and CNN have the distance of Obama's landslide margin between their polls.

For those keeping score at home, here is how these polls play out on a map:

5 points




Obama won re-election in 2012 by 3.9%.  The tightest red state was North Carolina, which Mitt Romney carried by 2.0%.  In the event of a five-point Clinton win, I suspect that North Carolina would be the only possible state to flip, but it wouldn't surprise me for the map to stay identical to 2012.  In this scenario, as in 2012, Hillary is not competitive in Arizona, Georgia, or Texas, as the media indicates today.

12 points


This map should show you that the media aren't even trying to be objective anymore.  The blue nightmare above sees the GOP holding a likely minimum of six states, and no more than 11.  At a twelve-point margin, there are no swing states.  None.  Not even second-tier swing states like Missouri, Arizona, or Georgia.  For the first time since 1996, the Democrats would have made inroads into the Deep South and would threaten some of the reddest states.

Why is this important?  The media are deliberately misleading the electorate and can't even keep their own lies between the networks laced with a scent of historical accuracy.  Recent state polls from battlegrounds like Ohio, Florida, North Carolina, Nevada, and others, combined with what we already know about levels of minority support, absentee balloting, early voting turnout, and enthusiasm, indicate that Trump is ahead or neck and neck in the Electoral College.  Regardless of the final outcome, competition in these states cannot possibly correlate with a 12-point loss.  Companies that release polling like this deserve all the ridicule they will receive for compromising their integrity.

What Is the Score?

I have no idea what the popular vote margin looks like right now.  Had he managed to flip a few hundred thousand total votes in five states, Romney could have won the Electoral College and lost the popular vote by over 3.0%.  Obama ran up his popular vote margin in California and New York.  Polling is accurate only if it can accurately forecast turnout.  If the electorate turns out to be D+8 or D+11, as many of the recent media polls have predicted in their efforts to mislead the electorate, then yes, Trump is finished.  However, record primary turnout, DemExit (the refusal of Sanders supporters to support Clinton), minority and independent support levels, and finally the constant torrent of scandals do not support electorate predictions more favorable to Democrats than Obama received.  With all of that said, I feel that this map is not a reach in the least:



This election will either be tight in favor of either candidate or will be a blowout in favor of Trump.  For the reasons stated above and backed up with maps, I do not anticipate Trump being steamrolled.

Ohio is the key.  Even the mainstream media seems to credit Trump with being up by at least four points there, while still expecting us to believe in a national race with the candidates separated by a dozen points.  It is possible that Trump's economic populism could realign the Rust Belt for the GOP and weaken red bastions, but I'd prefer to go with history.  Since 1964, Ohio has voted with the winner.  Going back to 1896, you'll find an impressive bellwether record in the Buckeye State. 

But wait, there's more.  Since 1992, the year of the last map realignment, Pennsylvania has always been to the left of Ohio, and by an average of 4.9 points.  In one of the rare GOP wins of the past 24 years, it was as close as 2.5 points.  If Trump can win Ohio big enough, he will pull Pennsylvania, and potentially Michigan as well, especially if he benefits from higher black support and help from the legendary Reagan Democrats.  Florida has voted right of Ohio in five of the last six elections, and North Carolina votes right of Florida.

Do not allow the media to steal this election without a fight.

Seth Keshel, former Army captain and Afghanistan veteran, is a district captain for the Convention of States Project – Texas.

From The American Thinker (October 28, 2016)


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