Friday, February 5, 2016

Buck Swamp's Super Bowl Prediction

By Buck Swamp

On paper there is absolutely no reason to pick Denver in this game.  Sure, Denver could win.  But the odds clearly favor the Panthers, who were the strongest team in the NFL this season, with an overall record of 17-1. 

But interestingly, this is a game that features the league's best overall offense (Carolina) against the league's best overall defense (Denver).  Historically, the best defense usually wins.  The last time the best regular-season offense met the best regular-sason defense was two years ago, when the Seattle Seahawks beat the Denver Broncos, 43-8.  The Seahawks had the number one defense that year.

The main difference between this year's match-up and two years ago is that this time, the team with the best offense, Carolina, also has one of the best defenses in the league.  In fact, while Carolina's defense ranked 6th overall this year, they're probably even better than that.  

My thinking is: with two defenses this good, there's a good chance Superbowl 50 will be a low-scoring affair.  And low-scoring games are usually close games.  So ... I'm picking Carolina to win but to fail to cover the 5.5 point spread.

Predicted score:  Carolina 23, Denver 20.

Super Bowl 50

Sunday, February 7, 2016
Santa Clara, CA

Carolina Panthers (17-1) vs. Denver Broncos (14-4)
Favorite: Carolina [-5.5]
Bucky's Pick: Carolina to win; Denver to cover the points.

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